← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 40% | 22% | 2.46 | fair |
| Aalen win | 32% | 48% | 3.06 | value: +46% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.44 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aalen | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1489.36 | 1435.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.46 | 22.52 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 43.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.06 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |