← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 64% | 60% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 4.65 | value: +18% |
| Frankfurt FSV win | 15% | 14% | 6.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Frankfurt FSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 308.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1562.48 | 1510.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.52 | 51.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.91 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| league points | 52.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.61 |
| state index | 0.48 | 0.83 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |