← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 40% | 42% | 2.44 | fair |
| Bochum win | 32% | 26% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.46 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1038.00 | 673.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1441.43 | 1566.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.14 | -10.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| league points | 35.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.65 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |