← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Fri, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 69% | 77% | 1.42 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 4.95 | fair |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 12% | 6% | 8.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 306.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1671.94 | 1434.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.63 | 19.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 69.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.23 | 1.10 |
| state index | 1.19 | -0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |