← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Fri, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 57% | 37% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 30% | 4.07 | value: +21% |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 19% | 34% | 5.09 | value: +71% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 672.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1426.15 | 1475.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.07 | -17.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 31.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.59 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |