← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Fri, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalen win | 57% | 54% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
| Regensburg win | 17% | 19% | 5.84 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aalen | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1644.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1484.83 | 1331.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.40 | -25.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 40.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.61 |
| state index | 0.13 | -1.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |