← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Mon, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 50% | 40% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.62 | value: +19% |
| Cottbus win | 22% | 27% | 4.36 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cottbus | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 515.00 | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1429.16 | 1581.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.12 | 32.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| league points | 40.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.73 |
| state index | -0.90 | 0.75 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |