← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 43% | 46% | 2.29 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.39 | value: +4% |
| Aalen win | 29% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Aalen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 667.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1477.09 | 1483.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.05 | 15.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 38.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.30 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |