← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfurt FSV win | 42% | 48% | 2.35 | value: +13% |
| Dresden win | 31% | 24% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frankfurt FSV | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1501.09 | 1435.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.38 | 6.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 47.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.03 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |