← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 61% | 65% | 1.59 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 4.08 | fair |
| Regensburg win | 15% | 15% | 6.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2156.00 | 1637.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1472.31 | 1336.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.96 | -21.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 40.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.63 |
| state index | -0.48 | -1.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |