← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 46% | 34% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.56 | value: +3% |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 26% | 37% | 3.70 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1023.00 | 198.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1412.07 | 1496.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.74 | -5.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 29.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.24 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |