← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Mon, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 47% | 47% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.38 | value: +6% |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 24% | 22% | 4.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1427.20 | 1573.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.71 | 21.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 31.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.71 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.59 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |