← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 59% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.17 | fair |
| Regensburg win | 17% | 15% | 5.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 653.00 | 1625.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1493.24 | 1339.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.83 | -39.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 37.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.64 |
| state index | -0.22 | -1.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |