← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cottbus win | 43% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.35 | fair |
| Bochum win | 27% | 24% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cottbus | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 500.00 | 1018.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1457.96 | 1391.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.74 | -36.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 40.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.93 |
| state index | -0.10 | -1.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |