← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 53% | 51% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.51 | fair |
| Cottbus win | 19% | 20% | 5.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Munich 1860 | Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 493.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1539.15 | 1454.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.19 | 9.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 41.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.96 | 9.96 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.44 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |