← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duisburg win | 57% | 61% | 1.70 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.70 | fair |
| SV Sandhausen win | 16% | 18% | 5.95 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Duisburg | SV Sandhausen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 949.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1466.38 | 1413.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.52 | -0.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 33.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.85 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |