← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 51% | 48% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 21% | 24% | 4.68 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1009.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1412.65 | 1406.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.79 | -9.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| state index | -0.88 | -0.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |