← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalen win | 43% | 42% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.21 | value: +4% |
| Ingolstadt win | 27% | 25% | 3.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aalen | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 521.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1465.90 | 1448.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.76 | -14.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 33.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 5.96 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.30 |
| state index | -1.10 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |