← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 41% | 43% | 2.40 | fair |
| Duisburg win | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.47 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 515.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1460.37 | 1454.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.03 | 18.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 35.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.15 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |