← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Thu, Mar 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig win | 58% | 59% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.94 | value: +5% |
| Dresden win | 17% | 15% | 5.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Braunschweig | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1792.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1560.83 | 1418.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.96 | 9.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| league points | 55.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 2.12 | 0.92 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |