← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 57% | 56% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.74 | value: +5% |
| Ingolstadt win | 17% | 16% | 5.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 259.00 | 502.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1549.06 | 1471.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.80 | -7.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 41.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.40 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |