← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 66% | 73% | 1.48 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.59 | fair |
| Duisburg win | 13% | 8% | 7.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 252.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1648.62 | 1451.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.41 | 0.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 52.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 1.13 |
| state index | 0.77 | -0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |