← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 39% | 39% | 2.48 | fair |
| Dresden win | 31% | 31% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1405.49 | 1439.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.44 | 21.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| state index | -1.22 | -0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |