← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Fri, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 59% | 67% | 1.66 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.11 | fair |
| Regensburg win | 18% | 12% | 5.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 156.00 | 1588.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1502.34 | 1362.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.07 | -7.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 29.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.71 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.93 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |