← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Fri, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfurt FSV win | 36% | 31% | 2.70 | fair |
| Aalen win | 34% | 34% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.25 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frankfurt FSV | Aalen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1455.39 | 1486.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.78 | -20.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 34.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.29 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |