← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Mon, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig win | 39% | 41% | 2.50 | value: +3% |
| Duisburg win | 32% | 27% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.35 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Duisburg | Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1768.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1439.34 | 1566.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.03 | 4.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.65 |
| league points | 24.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 2.22 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |