← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalen win | 40% | 38% | 2.43 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 30% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 37% | 3.27 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aalen | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1498.00 | 1490.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.04 | -18.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 31.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.13 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |