← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 63% | 60% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.25 | fair |
| Bochum win | 14% | 16% | 7.11 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 244.00 | 975.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1551.99 | 1427.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.02 | 15.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 39.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.09 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |