← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Fri, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 54% | 52% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.74 | fair |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 20% | 22% | 4.87 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2100.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1491.93 | 1416.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.19 | -17.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| league points | 32.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.04 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |