← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Fri, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 41% | 45% | 2.37 | value: +7% |
| Cottbus win | 31% | 26% | 3.18 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 609.00 | 456.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1504.07 | 1441.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.28 | -23.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 32.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.39 |
| state index | 0.02 | -1.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |