← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Mon, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 52% | 61% | 1.89 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.44 | fair |
| Kaiserslautern win | 20% | 14% | 4.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 239.00 | 239.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1657.66 | 1557.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.29 | -11.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 49.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.23 | 1.77 |
| state index | 1.01 | 0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |