← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cottbus win | 55% | 59% | 1.78 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.65 | fair |
| Regensburg win | 19% | 18% | 5.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cottbus | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 451.00 | 1576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1444.78 | 1375.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.06 | -1.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 31.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 0.73 |
| state index | -0.82 | -0.79 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |