← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Fri, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 43% | 28% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 36% | 3.36 | value: +22% |
| Aalen win | 28% | 35% | 3.44 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Aalen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1415.84 | 1498.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.07 | -8.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 23.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.36 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |