← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Fri, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 41% | 43% | 2.37 | fair |
| Duisburg win | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 967.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1429.43 | 1437.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.10 | 11.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 24.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.05 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |