← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 45% | 59% | 2.10 | value: +24% |
| Aachen win | 30% | 16% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Munich 1860 | Aachen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1556.90 | 1395.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.55 | 6.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 57.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 0.85 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |