← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfurt FSV win | 42% | 36% | 2.20 | fair |
| Dresden win | 32% | 36% | 3.10 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frankfurt FSV | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1423.82 | 1483.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.52 | 2.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 34.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.33 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |