← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 68% | 56% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 27% | 4.80 | value: +29% |
| Duisburg win | 12% | 17% | 9.00 | value: +55% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 11906.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1600.93 | 1472.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.44 | 32.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 61.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.15 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |