← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 53% | 35% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.75 | value: +20% |
| Bochum win | 21% | 33% | 4.75 | value: +58% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 675.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1401.92 | 1458.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.92 | -6.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| league points | 32.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.12 |
| state index | -1.18 | -0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |