← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig win | 45% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 28% | 21% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 34% | 3.50 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Braunschweig | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1466.00 | 187.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1427.15 | 1449.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.28 | 5.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 42.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.12 |
| state index | -0.86 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |