← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 44% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 28% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Greuther Furth | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1764.00 | 11899.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1654.18 | 1597.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.87 | -21.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| league points | 68.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.88 |
| state index | 0.83 | 0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |