← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 37% | 42% | 2.50 | value: +6% |
| Karlsruhe win | 35% | 29% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 52.00 | 296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1360.69 | 1541.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.84 | 4.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| league points | 27.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.87 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |