← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 63% | 65% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 15% | 13% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 11892.00 | 1787.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1592.61 | 1465.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.17 | -23.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 57.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.45 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |