← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 48% | 58% | 2.00 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Frankfurt FSV win | 26% | 16% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frankfurt FSV | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1755.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1425.09 | 1658.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.47 | 7.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| league points | 33.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 2.16 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.82 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |