← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig win | 43% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
| Duisburg win | 29% | 23% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 34% | 3.40 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Braunschweig | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1450.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1440.33 | 1465.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.70 | 41.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 41.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.10 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |