← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 75% | 81% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 6.00 | fair |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 9% | 5% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 410.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1615.78 | 1415.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.95 | 5.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| league points | 62.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.03 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |