← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock win | 45% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
| Frankfurt FSV win | 27% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hansa Rostock | Frankfurt FSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1388.72 | 1402.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.92 | 13.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 26.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |