← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Wed, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 36% | 35% | 2.60 | fair |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 35% | 33% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1429.06 | 1519.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.48 | -44.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| league points | 31.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.79 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |