← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Wed, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aachen win | 43% | 40% | 2.20 | fair |
| Bochum win | 29% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aachen | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 650.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1392.70 | 1459.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.18 | -32.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 22.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.10 |
| state index | -1.34 | -1.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |