← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Tue, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 59% | 62% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 18% | 15% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 12337.00 | 1775.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1563.33 | 1463.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.72 | -14.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| league points | 53.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.45 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |