← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Tue, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 47% | 38% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.40 | value: +19% |
| Braunschweig win | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Braunschweig | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1440.00 | 1745.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1444.23 | 1656.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.35 | 24.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.70 |
| league points | 40.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 2.17 |
| state index | -0.38 | 1.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |